Hello! I'm Mark Pack, author of Polling UnPacked: The History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls (get your own copy here), as well as 101 Ways To Win An Election and Bad News: what the headlines don't tell us. I also maintain the largest database of national voting intention polls in the UK, stretching back to 1943. The next general election is most likely several years away, but political polling of voting intentions for a general election is in full swing. Half-a-dozen firms are polling regularly, with a handful of occasional surveys from others too. Below the table, you'll ...

Posted by Mark Pack on Mark Pack

There is a lot to be learnt about Omicron. We know it is spreading fast. Faster than the dominant variant Delta. We don't yet know its health impacts, the risks of those with one, two or three doses of vaccine getting Covid-19. We don't yet know the health impacts of Omicron, the extent it will increase hospitalisation, lead to long term health consequences and deaths. It is very early days on Omicron. The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine study that triggered today's media statement by Daisy Cooper has yet to be peer reviewed. But if there is a ...

Posted by Andy Boddington on Liberal Democrat Voice

I have recently become fascinated with the work of the 17th-century sculptor Jan-Christian Hansch (name spelt in various ways in different sources), who I found out about visiting the Park Abbey, near us, and then the Château de Modave out in Wallonia. His specialisation was in three-dimensional stucco ceilings of incredible detail. Very little is known about him or his life; all the work that he is known to have done was in Belgium or in the Lower Rhine district of Germany, which was under Dutch rule in his lifetime (though before he worked there). I've compiled a Google Map ...

The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers won the first ever Hugo for Best Dramatic Presentation, Long Form in 2003, and the Nebula for Best Script of 2003 (awarded in 2004). It also won two Oscars. IMDB users rank it top film of 2002 on one system but only seventh on the other. For both Hugo and Nebula, it beat Minority Report and Spirited Away; the other Hugo finalists were Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets and Spider-Man, and the other Nebula finalists were Finding Nemo and a Futurama episode. As with the previous film, The Two Towers ...

The onset of the parliamentary recess is upon us. A hiatus in the by-election schedule is just around the corner. 2021 is drawing to a conclusion. Therefore, it wouldn't be naïve to think that the Lib Dems had wound up the victories for 2021. Nevertheless, this week's local by-elections proved that not only do Liberal Democrats canvass all year but we also win all year round. Central to our continued success is the fantastic work all our councillors, candidates and ardent supporters carry out without exception week in week out. Rotherham provided a tectonic shift in the political landscape with ...

Posted by Paul Heilbron on Liberal Democrat Voice
Sat 11th
11:00

My tweets

Fri, 12:56: Well worth 8 minutes of your time. https://t.co/GV8G9NCVm8 Fri, 14:50: RT @davidallengreen: The 'write a political novel in five words' contest has a winner. Fri, 16:05: https://t.co/1ppuNzoavz Fri, 17:11: Chinese bogeyman looms over New Caledonia's independence vote https://t.co/Xtev7TbmUf Wow, this is fascinating. Fri, 18:13: The Last Defender of Camelot, by Roger Zelazny (2002, not 1980) https://t.co/ID0zZkzDvS Fri, 18:48: Friday reading https://t.co/WAH7m6sSuM Fri, 20:48: RT @goodnewsfinland: Although I love all the #Moomin books, this is the one that has stayed with me and that I go back to. It's hard to ove... Fri, 21:50: Just in case you didn't ...

Ukraine is now firmly on the East-West, US-Russian agenda. This is a victory for Vladimir Putin. He has proven that even though Russia's GDP is $400 billion less than chaotic Italy it is still a Great Power who can flex its muscles and demand concessions from Super Power America. But what are those concessions? Well the big one is, the US will not come to Ukraine's aid with troops, missiles or drones if Russia attacks Ukraine. That does not mean, however that President Joe Biden is giving Putin the green light to attack. No, he is threatening sanctions. And this ...

Posted by Tom Arms on Liberal Democrat Voice

Here's my latest report back to party members from the Liberal Democrat website: I've often said history points to two routes for Liberal Democrat (and before that Liberal Party) revivals. One, which we'd much rather avoid, is a foreign disaster – Iraq, former Yugoslavia, Suez... The other is seizing electoral opportunities outside Westminster general elections to give us momentum, increased prominence and growing relevance. After Sarah Green's brilliant win in Chesham and Amersham, we saw the boost that gave the party nationally with consistently higher poll ratings and greater media attention. Now we've got a chance – a real chance ...

Posted by Mark Pack on Mark Pack

I am a health assistant in a GP practice in south Shropshire, writes Tracey Huffer. We are working flat out to get everyone jabbed and catch up with the backlog of patients who had not recognised or reported their conditions during the long periods of lockdown and shielding. Further north in the county, the situation is no different and the county is getting worse with the onset of winter pressures. GPs are overstretched across Shropshire. Hospitals are at capacity with 93% of adult general and acute beds occupied. Ambulance arrival times and transfer times are growing. Nearly two-thirds of 999 ...

Posted by andybodders on Andy Boddington

I am a health assistant in a GP practice in south Shropshire. We are working flat out to get everyone jabbed and catch up with the backlog of patients who had not recognised or reported their conditions during the long periods of lockdown and shielding. Further north in the county, the situation is no different and the county is getting worse with the onset of winter pressures. GPs are overstretched across Shropshire. Hospitals are at capacity with 93% of adult general and acute beds occupied. Ambulance arrival times and transfer times are growing. Nearly two-thirds of 999 ambulances must wait ...

Posted by Tracey Huffer on Liberal Democrat Voice
YouGov

Today sees the final day of West End Christmas Fortnight 2021! Here's the events today : 12 noon to 4pm - Community Wardrobe - Gate Church - Free clothes/shoes/accessories for everyone. Please book at www.gatechurch.co.uk/carbonprojecteventsor call Dundee 221222. 12.30pm - The West End Christmas Fortnight Primary 6 football competitionat Harris Academy. With thanks to the schools for all their help with this. P6 teams participating from our local primary schools. Unfortunately spectators are not possible this year due to COVID-related safety measures. 2pm to 4.30pm - D'Arcy Thompson Zoology Museum Open Day - Carnelley Building, off Park Place, University of ...

Sat 11th
06:00

Partying the night away

Unsurprisingly, Ten Downing Street has cancelled this year's staff Christmas party. Unfortunately for them, nobody cares. We are all still talking about last year's event. It must have been quite a do, as nobody who attended it seems to remember being there, but the prevailing wisdom is that it did happen, in defiance of the prevailing regulations, and that the public is pretty pissed about it all. Of course the revelations continue to drip out in the most damaging way, with the latest being in Mirror, who say that Boris Johnson's top spin doctor made a thank you speech and ...

Posted by Peter Black on Peter Black